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WORLD TEXTILE FIBRES TO 2005 AND BEYOND
source: www.freedoniagroup.com/
World-Textile-Fibers.html
www.emergingtextiles.com/?q=art&s
=300304-mark&r=free&n=13
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The global textile and clothing sector is at a crossroads. The end of quotas in 2004 will have a major impact on how and where textiles and clothing are made, and how the supply chain is managed…- after China, which is the world’s largest textile exporter (18% of all exports), India (3.6%) is being seen as the second-biggest beneficiary of a free market;
- world demand for textile fibres is estimated to grow 5.4% annually to nearly 44 million metric tons in 2005, valued at US$120 billion, driven by solid gains in synthetic fibres such as polyester and olefins*. Manufactured fibres will expand their market share over natural fibres. The global fibre industry will continue to shift to the Asia/Pacific region, particularly China, South Korea and Taiwan;
- the large and mature North American market will feel the effects of the US recession, which emerged in 2001, though this factor will be partially offset by strong gains in Mexico, where fibre demand is benefiting from rapid industrialisation and rising income levels;
- although China is expected to gain a decisive share in the global apparel market, India could be the second largest supplier of EU and US markets in the post quota era**; under a first scenario, the US and the EU would not try curbing apparel imports from the PRC (China), and China would take a 50% share of the global market by 2008. In the four coming years, China's apparel exports would therefore rise 16.6% per year to US$124 billion;
- under the second scenario, Brussels and Washington would re-impose quotas on a series of apparel categories from China whose apparel exports would ‘only’ increase by 7.3% per year to US$64 billion in 2008.
*According to a Freedonia group study (‘World Textile Fibres to 2005 - Market Size, Market Share, Demand Forecast and Sales’) published in 2002.
**According to a report made by US consultancy firm Mc Kinsey and ordered by DHL.
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