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DROUGHT
source: www.ipcc.ch
www.climate.org
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One of the most serious effects of climate change will be to increase the risk and possibly the duration of droughts… for years and possibly decades! - the immediate consequences- water stress, food scarcity, reduced plant growth, disease - could lead to economic, social and even political stresses;
- the most severe consequences, such as famine, forced migration and disease epidemics need not be the direct consequences of a drought; however an increase in drought risk with climate change could push some sensitive ecosystems and economies beyond the threshold of sustainability;
- the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects a reduction in crop yields in most tropical and subtropical regions caused by mid-continental droughts. Some crops in tropical locations would be decimated because many are already grown in climate conditions near their maximum temperature tolerance. Africa and parts of Latin America are considered to be the most vulnerable regions;
- decreased availability of water as a result of climate change could affect populations in the subtropics where water is already scarce. Currently about 1/3 of the world's population (1.7 billion people) live in water stressed countries, and that number is projected to increase to 5 billion people by 2025;
- droughts in Africa have cost up to 8% of GDP, primarily due to loss of power production from hydroelectric plants;
- annual average losses in the United States due to drought are estimated at $6 to $8 billion;
- changes in food supply resulting from climate change could affect the nutrition and health of the poor in some regions of the world. The risk of reduced food yields is greatest in developing countries - where 790 million people are estimated to be undernourished at present;
- globally, disasters triggered by droughts occur especially during the year after the onset of El Niño.
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