 |
CARS/FUTURE TRENDS
source: www.transport2000.org.uk/
factsandfigures/Facts.asp
www.indiafirstfoundation.org/archives/
news/04/october/b&e_m.htm
www2.acnielsen.com/news/
20050316_ap.shtml
|
|
What would happen to the world if China’s 1.5 billion people achieved an American style of living? - if automobile ownership reached American levels (3 cars for every 4 people), China would have a fleet of 1.1 billion cars. That’s more than the world’s total car ‘population’ of about 795 million vehicles. The paving over of land for highways and parking lots for such a fleet would approach that now planted in rice, according to the US green activist Lester Brown; (1)
- in general, as incomes rise, there is a marked increase in vehicle ownership. With 5 million car sales in 2004, China is already the world's 3rd-largest car market, after America (17m) and Japan (5.9m). According to far more conservative forecasts, China is expected to have 140 million automobiles plying its roads by 2020, seven times more than in 2004. According to David Thomas, head of China distribution for Ford, between 2010 and 2015, China could be the biggest; (2)
- in recent years, the number of cars in China has been growing annually by 20%, and the potential growth is almost unlimited. If the present patterns persist, China’s car ownership would exceed the US by 2030; (3)
- India is projected to have the largest number of cars in the world - 611 million to be precise - by 2050. According to the third Bric (Brazil, Russia, India, China) report from investment banking firm Goldman Sachs, this means every 6th car produced in the world will be sold in India. The report says passenger car density in India will continue to be 1/3 of China's until 2025. India will overtake its neighbour somewhere in the vicinity of 2050, when the country will have 382 cars per thousand people compared with China's 363 in that year. The report also projected that there will be 14.35 million cars in India by 2010, in line with the industry's projection of adding a million cars a year from next year. It presumes a base of 9.03 million cars in 2005; (4)
- the fact that the number of cars per person, at 1:12, is still low in Thailand, even by regional standards (it is 1:5 in Malaysia and 1:2 in Japan), suggests that, with rising incomes and greater affordability, there is scope for local demand to continue to record strong annual growth rates of around 10% in 2005 and an average of 8.5% in 2006-09, according to The Economist Intelligence Unit;(5)
- The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that new passenger car registrations in Malaysia will grow at an average annual rate of around 5% in 2004-08. Car density is expected to rise sharply over the forecast period, from 232 per 1,000 of the population in 2004 to 300 in 2009;(6)
A recent global online survey on car ownership and purchase intentions reveals that people in Asia are the most ‘aspirational’ when it comes to car ownership in the next 12 months... - findings on consumers’ current and future car ownership intentions were released on 16 March 2005 by ACNielsen, a leading provider of consumer and marketplace information, as part of its Online Consumer Survey which polled over 14,100 internet users in 28 countries across Asia Pacific, Europe and the US in October 2004;
- across Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand were the only countries in the region making the list of the global top 10 driving nations with 90% of Australians claiming to own a car, on a par with the Italians and just behind Americans at 92%. New Zealanders ranked fourth in the global car ownership stakes, with 89% owning a car;
- at the other end of the scale, nine of the bottom 10 ranked countries for car ownership hailed from Asia, with Hong Kong (20%), China (31%) and Singapore (39%) commanding the lowest percentage of car owners globally;
- not surprisingly - given the low percentage of car owners in Asia, the highest percentage of people in Asia (30%) expressed an intention to buy one in the next 12 months, compared with less than a quarter of Europeans and Americans intending to purchase;
- based on the survey findings, automotive experts at ACNielsen developed an “Aspiration Index” (AI) to further measure the relationship between current ownership levels and future intentions to purchase a vehicle, highlighting countries of high future demand. As a result, significant variations were observed between markets and the types of vehicles aspired to, and the factors driving these choices;
| High(AI > 60%) | Medium(AI 30-60%) | Low(AI <30%) | | China | Malaysia | USA | | Indonesia | Singapore | Sweden | | India | Taiwan | Germany | | Thailand | Spain | Norway | | Korea | Australia | Austria | | Hong Kong | France | Netherlands | | Philippines | Italy | Finland | | UK | Denmark | | Belgium | Japan | | Portugal | | | | New Zealand | | |
- globally, price was the most frequently cited driver of choice, and therefore was a universal consideration for new car purchases. Other considerations like fuel consumption, performance and safety were a distant second and third, and varied across the three regions. In Asia Pacific, Malaysians (88%), Indonesians (82%) and Thais (81%) were the most price-conscious while performance figured highly for about two-thirds of Chinese, Indians and Filippinos. When it came to fuel consumption, Indians, Koreans and Singaporeans were relatively more concerned;
- brand image/prestige ranked high in the US and Spain (28% respectively) and among the European countries and commanded greater importance in a number of Asia Pacific countries like Taiwan, China and Indonesia (40% each);
- among those intending to purchase a new car, those in Asia Pacific accounted for the most first time buyers (42%), while over 60% of Americans and Europeans were considering a replacement for an existing car.
(1) Todd Crowell, “If Every Chinese Owned a Two-Car Garage”, April 25, 2005. [ asiacable.blogspot.com/2005/04/if-every-chinese-owned-two-car-garage.html ]
(2) “Dream machines”, Beijing and Shanghai, from The Economist print edition, June 2nd 2005. [ www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=4032842]
(3) International Energy Outlook 2004. [ www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html ]
(4) By 2005, cars in India will be 8 per thousand; this will cross 12 by 2010, 30 by 2020 and 382 by 2050. Courtesy: www.business-standard.com , October 23, 2004.
(5) The Economist Intelligence Unit, 01 Jan 2005. [eb.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=oneclick&country_id=1830000183]
(6) The Economist Intelligence Unit, 14 Feb 2005. [ eb.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=oneclick&country_id=1600000160]
|
