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TRAFFIC/
FACTS & PERCEPTIONS
source: www.wbcsd.org/DocRoot/
uu8taBpoTDXkvBiJHuaU/english_
full_report.pdf
www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/
content/dtt_research_GridlockExec
Summ_110303.pdf
www.worldenergy.org/wec-
geis/publications/default/tech
_papers/17th_congress/4_2_30.asp
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It is believed that at this growth rate, the number of cars on earth will double within the next 30 years. In this time scientists predict that traffic congestion will become 10 times worse than it is today… - the growth rate in motor vehicles is projected to vastly exceed the growth in new roads in nearly every country in the world over the next several decades, causing congestion to rise even further. In Western Europe, for instance, it is forecast that gridlock will rise 188% on urban roads by 2010;(1)
- congestion imposes huge costs on the economy. These costs include unpredictable travel times, environmental damage, property damage, delays, and lost production. In OECD countries alone, the cost of gridlock equals nearly 3% of GDP, or about US$810 billion including US$150 billion in the United States alone;(2)
- in the US, where 220 million adults average 1 hour and 1/2 a day in their cars, views of traffic vary according to highway conditions. An 2005 ABC News poll showed that 3/4 of Americans say driving often gives them a sense of independence, and nearly 50% say it's often relaxing. Four in 10 love their cars - not just like them, but love them. But there is a darker side: about 1/3 can be classified as aggressive drivers. Six in 10 concede they sometimes go well over the speed limit. 62% occasionally get frustrated behind the wheel, more than 4 in 10 get angry and 2 in 10 sometimes boil into road rage. And nothing fuels driver anger like getting stuck in a traffic jam. People chiefly blame the sheer volume of traffic as the main cause of jams in their area; 44% say so, while 26% blame construction and 14% say it is accidents. (3)
A surge in private car ownership is causing awful traffic jams in all major Asian cities…- the numbers of cars in Asian cities is rising rapidly. For example, according to a UN report, the number of cars in Bangkok increased sevenfold in the 20 years between 1970 and 1990. Beijing, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur and some Indian cities are all in the same situation. Moreover, Asian cities see a large number of 2- and 3-wheeled vehicles (over 50% in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc.). Bangkok alone has 2 million bicycles and motorbikes;
- as income levels rise, many of these people will transit from bicycles and walking to other forms of motor transport and it is likely that the PRC, Viet Nam, India, etc., will see massive increases in motor transport. This is causing increased urban sprawl as residential areas spread outwards;
- in Asian cities, rush hour traffic moves at an average of just 16 km/hour. In Bangkok, the average is closer to 9 km/hour, and an average car is estimated to spend the equivalent of 44 days a year stuck in traffic. According to a World Bank study, the congestion cost is about US$400 million a year the amount could be saved just by making peak hour traffic move 10% faster. Further the study also estimated that the annual costs of dust and lead pollution in Bangkok, Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur combined have been estimated at US$5 billion, or about 10% of the city income. (4)
The traditional strategy for coping with growing road traffic is to build more and larger roads… - this has failed to solve congestion in urban areas, but instead has aggravated the situation by inducing more car use and auto-dependent urban structures. Most major cities in the developing world are frequently characterised by a low proportion of urban space devoted to roads (e.g., 6% in Calcutta and 11% in Bangkok, compared to 20%-25% in most European cities with well functioning transit systems and 30% in such cities as Los Angeles, dominated by the car); (4)
- however, the experience of large cities in China shows that construction of high capacity roads has not even improved traffic congestion levels: at the end of the ‘90s, Beijing, for example, had already constructed two ring roads and a third ring road was in the process of completion. The city had already 119 flyovers and 202 overpasses. The total number of vehicles was 1.2 million. However, the rush hour average speed on trunk roads was still 13-19 km/h; (5)
- a number of traffic management programmes have proved successful in reducing traffic. Examples include: road pricing schemes in Hong Kong, area licensing in Singapore, private car restrictions in city centres in Gothenburg, Sweden, parking control in Singapore, parking and street trading restrictions in San Jose and Lima, and priority bus-only lanes in Bangkok;
- traffic bans in the form of odd/even car license number restriction (e.g. in Athens, Mexico City, and Santiago) proved to be of mixed success. In Athens, the number of households with 2 cars increased and motorists who were not allowed to enter the city centre drove around the city to get near their destination thereby increasing the length of their trips and increasing emissions; (4)
- higher prices of fuel has been a component of comprehensive strategies for controlling the impact on the environment in countries such as Mexico, Thailand and Indonesia. This can be supplemented by increased parking charges, as currently being implemented, for example, in Korea and Poland.
A number of efforts under way around the world show that curbing gridlock comes down to the proper pricing of scarce road space: the congestion charging experience in London…- in the United Kingdom, car travel accounted for 4/5 of the total distance travelled in Britain in 1999/2001. Overall the distance travelled by car increased by 11% during the 1990s. 60% of cars on the road had only 1 occupant in 1999/2001. People in the UK make more use of cars than any other European country, despite having below average car ownership. The UK has the most extensive traffic congestion in Europe (in terms of the proportion of links congested) and its roads are the second most heavily used after Spain (in terms of vehicle/km);
- overall levels of car traffic and the numbers of cars on the road have increased tenfold since 1955. Road traffic grew by 73% between 1980 and 2002. The majority of the growth was in car traffic. Road traffic is expected to grow by 26% by 2010, 31% by 2015 and 40% by 2025 (on 2000 levels);
- public expectation of future road conditions is overwhelmingly pessimistic. Almost 8 in 10 expect congestion in towns and on major roads and motorways to get worse over the next ten years. According to a 2005 MORI poll, road charging to reduce congestion at peak times is supported by 47% of people in Britain, so long as other motoring taxes are reduced to compensate; 34% are against road charging; 73% of vehicle owners would consider fitting an in-car tracking device for charging;
- London’s congestion charging scheme is the best-known recent example of successful measures curbing gridlock. Vehicles driving within central London are now charged a flat fee of GB£5 (about US$8.9) per day between 7:00 am and 6:30 pm, Monday to Friday. The charge is enforced using automatic number-plate recognition (ANPR) technology made possible by placing small pole-mounted cameras throughout the charging zone. Since the charges were instituted in February 2003, average traffic speeds in the zone have risen by 37% and congestion is down by 40%. There has been an increase in cycling of one-third. Pollution from nitrogen oxides and particulates has been cut by 12% in the charging zone. Congestion charging in London generated £90 million (about €130m or US$160m) in 2004/05, spent largely on improving buses. The charge has had no measurable effect on total central London retail sales. However, congestion is currently costing transport users and operators at least £15 billion (about €21.6 bn or US$26.7bn) a year and could double over the next ten years;
- according to London’s official statistics, over 1/3 of London households do not own a car. Bus-use has increased significantly since 1999, and it is now at its highest levels for over 30 years. In central London, cars and vans are only used by 10% of people as the main mode to work. This rises to 64% in outer London and to 76% in the rest of Great Britain.
(1) INRAS Consulting Group, “External Costs of Transit,” Zurich, Switzerland, March 2000. As mentioned in: Deloitte Research, “Combating Gridlock”, November 2003. [ www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/dtt_research
_GridlockExecSumm_110303.pdf]
(2) OECD statistics, 2001. [ www1.oecd.org/publications/figures/ 2001/anglais/012_013_GDP.pdf]
(3) ABC News Poll, “Traffic in the United States”, analysis by Gary Langer, February 13, 2005.
[ abcnews.go.com/Technology/Traffic/story?id=485098&page=2]
(4) Bose, R. K., “Automobiles and Environmental Sustainability: Issues and Options for Developing
Countries”, Tata Energy Research Institute, New Delhi, India, 1998. [ www.teriin.org/division/regdiv/ugi/docs/ft01.pdf]
(5) Tiwari, G., “Urban Transport and safety in developing countries: A paradigm shift for sustainability”, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, India, 1999.
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