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POTENTIAL
REVOLUTIONS/ICT
source: www.mod.uk/linked_files/jdcc/
st/4_ScienceTechnology.pdf
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It is assessed that the further development of certain technologies will have a revolutionary impact on the world over the next 30 years. Such technologies include Information and Communications Technology (ICT) …- ICT is defined as the entire infrastructure, organisation, personnel, and components that collect, process, store, transmit, display, disseminate and act on information.
- The further development, expansion and diffusion of ICT are highly likely to have continued impacts on commerce, society, the individual and governance. Some trends are easy to predict over the next 15-20 years. There is no doubt that ICT devices and services will spread rapidly as equipment costs reduce in parallel to increased demand. They will become less conspicuous and more routine parts of life.
- Computer processing power will get faster and cheaper, generally in line with ‘Moore’s Law’ (which states that the number of processing and storage elements on electronic chips will double every 18 months). The current silicon based systems may reach their physical limitations before 2015 but new technologies based on molecular and biological sciences, quantum physics and the use of new materials with novel properties will vie to replace silicon.
- The connectivity between computer systems is likely to increase in the world’s leading economies through, digital, wireless, and wideband connectivity and voice, data and video convergence to the extent that connectivity is no longer perceived as a limiting factor with many systems ‘on-line all the time’ by 2015 or earlier.(1) This will produce significant changes in the nature of work and social life but also introduce new critical infrastructures, as developed societies become dependent on constant interconnectivity.
- Managing the increased speed and volume of information will be a significant task. The diffusion of IT will cause an explosion of information available to huge audiences of individuals, business, commerce and institutions. Information and knowledge management will become a technology in itself, and provide business and career opportunities.
- Closer union of human and machine will become possible. Scientists have been trying to tap into the brain’s electronic communication system through neural implants for decades. Recent advances in the fabrication and implantation of wireless interfaces in the brain have successfully translated motor and sensory commands into controlling peripheral devices such as robotic arms.
- It is also likely that human-machine interface technologies such as sophisticated visualisation technologies (e.g. virtual reality), wearable devices and pervasive computing (2) will mature, easing interaction and potentially reducing the skill levels necessary to operate typical ICT technology.
- It is not clear whether society is ready to accept such invasive systems. Many may view such developments as an infringement of civil rights and will wish to continue to prefer systems with a human input but which are more user-friendlier. Certainly such developments will provoke strong legal, moral and ethical debate.
(1) JDCC S+T workshop, Oct 2001.
(2) Pervasive computing – where sensors, control interfaces and ‘intelligence’ are embedded everywhere in the environment (streets, buildings and artefacts) and even people. ‘Plastic electronics’ will enable computers to be moulded into clothes and equipment at low cost, making ‘wearable’ computers practical and cost effective.
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